Fall Will Be Warmer And Wetter Than Normal; El Niño Onset Likely


“This is good news for Texas’ wildlife and habitat, ranchers and farmers.

NOTE: this article was originally published to ExpressNews.com on September 25, 2018. It was written by S.M. Chavey.

It’s going to be a warm and wet fall in San Antonio, the National Weather Service said in its just released climate outlook report.

There’s also a 65 percent to 70 percent chance for El Niño to develop by winter, which typically translates to above normal rainfall for the area, National Weather Service meteorologist Brett Williams said.

El Niño is a climate pattern that results in warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The area will likely experience more rounds of heavy rain, bringing with it flash flooding and river flooding, Williams said. But the likelihood of severe weather, including tornadoes, hail and thunderstorm winds, and tropical storms is below normal this fall, Williams said. In addition, the chances for wildfires are lower than usual, according to the report.

Ranching, wildlife management, finance, oil & gas, real estate development and management.
  • El Niño is drought for our side of the Pacific. Last decent La Ninia was our summer of 2010- 2011. Clover up to our knees, countless millions of Stubble quail and Brown quail. One man’s blessing is another man’s curse: La Niña please!

    • Hello Robert,

      El Niño-La Niña are reciprocating patterns that create wet and dry conditions on the land, and, conditions of abundance and famine in the marine environments.

      In the Galapagos Islands for example, warmer water from El Niño means more rain on the land but a famine for birds and animals that feed at sea, such as sea lions. This is because the cold upwelling water brings nutrients which stimulate marine organisms and create more baitfish. So, colder upwelling water means more food for sea lions and less food for plants and animals on the land.

      It is not clear what causes these fluctuations. It might be solar cycles, tidal cycles or even volcanic activity on the Pacific floor. Whatever the cause, global weather is like a giant reciprocating engine in the sense that when one piston goes down, another piston goes up.

      Wait a while – California’s turn will come.

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